LA Mayor Primary 2026: New Votes Added per Update
Selected data point
June 3, 10:00 AM snapshot recreated from the early-count image
Prediction market: who wins the governorship probability over time
California Governor Election Winner
Live trader-implied probability that each candidate wins the November 3, 2026 general election, blended from Polymarket and Kalshi. Becerra consolidated the Democratic field and surged after winning the June primary. Press Refresh to pull current market prices. Win probability is not the same as vote share.
Compare markets and polls to the actual result ↓Relationship web how every source, candidate, race and narrative ties together
A live network of the dashboard’s data world: candidates, sources, races, narratives and geography, linked by who reports, corroborates, debunks or contains whom. Click a node to trace its 1st, 2nd and 3rd degree ties; drag to rearrange; switch the timeline to see which links were active before, on, and after Election Day.
Time-line web map every data point, before / on / after June 2
Every verified data point in this audit laid out left to right in time, color-coded by source type, sized by phase (small before, medium on Election Day, large after). Real ties connect points that report, corroborate, test or debunk each other. Click a node to trace its 1st, 2nd and 3rd degree connections along the timeline; scroll sideways to travel through the campaign.
Market volatility computed from real Polymarket price history
How sharply trader-implied probabilities moved. The volatility index is the standard deviation of recent daily probability changes (0 to 100, higher means choppier); momentum and the biggest single-day swings are read straight off the market's own price history.
From the baked reconstruction until the live Polymarket history loads, then recomputed from real data.
Biggest single-day probability swings
14-day volatility trend (lead candidate)
Polls & markets vs the actual result Governor
How each pre-election poll and prediction market compared to the official June primary vote share (Becerra 27.7%, Hilton 25.1%, Steyer 22.3%). Error is the mean absolute difference across the three leaders; green < 3 pts, amber 3–7, red > 7.
Poll figures shown for illustration of the polls-vs-results method; verify against each pollster’s release (Berkeley IGS) before citing. Prediction-market rows are win-probability, listed for reference, not vote share.
Maps & geography official county-level returns + external map sources
Governor: who led each of the 58 counties
The official CA Secretary of State county returns, reduced to a leader cartogram and sorted from Hilton’s strongest counties to Becerra’s. Tile intensity tracks the leader’s share; click any county for its full numbers.
Loading official county returns…
External map sources for cross-checking: the official interactive map, newsroom county choropleths, and the cinyc mapper references provided for this audit.
cinyc cross-reference live from @cinyc9 + cinycmaps.com
An independent election mapper covering the same races. Posts are recovered login-free through X’s public syndication endpoint; House ratings come from cinycmaps’ public ratings sheet. Loaded live through the serverless proxy.
Loading cinyc cross-reference…
Anomaly & Gap analysis balanced auditor context
More official results live cross-checks from LAVote and CA SOS
LA City Mayor, official LA County feed results.lavote.gov
Loading the official LAVote count… (local preview falls back to the cross-checked baked figures)
Statewide down-ballot races official CA SOS, fetched directly in your browser
The seven other statewide offices on the June 2 ballot, from the same official API as the Governor numbers. Top three candidates per race.
Loading official down-ballot returns…
Narrative keyword tracker
Relative volume of repeated phrases across news and social, June 2 to 8, mapped as one interactive overlay. Hover the chart to read every phrase at that day; hover or click a card below to highlight its line and filter the dashboard.
Lines start as illustrative volume shapes and upgrade in place to real worldwide news volume (GDELT, last 7 days) as each phrase loads through the serverless proxy. The “jump” is an editorial linkage to a relevant tabulation moment, not a statistical correlation.
Attention tracker: Wikipedia pageviews real daily reads of each candidate’s article
Daily views of each candidate’s Wikipedia article, May 1 to today, fetched directly from the official Wikimedia pageviews API in your browser. A real, independent measure of public attention: watch the June 3 spike as the count began.
Prediction markets live fetch with graceful fallback
Attempts a live pull from Polymarket (Gamma) and Kalshi public APIs. Browser CORS or not-yet-listed markets fall back to clearly labelled reference estimates.
IdlePrimary sources & explainer videos
Verifiable data tables screen-reader fallback for every chart
How to read this tool with a keyboard or screen reader
The left timeline is a listbox: focus it and use Up / Down to move between verified data points, Enter to open the full detail, Home / End to jump to the first or last. Each chart is also focusable: Tab to it, then Left / Right to scrub between updates with spoken values. Every selection is announced through a polite live region and updates the charts, the detail panel and the highlighted point. Charts expose an aria-label, are mirrored by the tables above, and encode each series with a distinct point shape in addition to color. Toggle high-contrast and reduced-motion from the top bar; both persist and also honor your OS settings.
Method, verification & integrity
What this is. A non-partisan research instrument for understanding how the count moved, not a results-certifying authority. Standings shift after Election Night because California counts millions of vote-by-mail and same-day ballots for weeks; in vote-by-mail-heavy, Democratic-leaning urban areas, those late ballots reliably break left. That is the documented “blue shift,” the mirror of the “red mirage.”
Election rules that shape these results
The LA City Mayor race is nonpartisan: candidates run without a party label, and if no one clears 50% + 1 in the June primary the top two advance to a November runoff. Party letters shown here indicate each candidate’s voter-registration preference for context, not a ballot designation. The Governor race is a top-two (jungle) primary: the two highest finishers advance to November regardless of party, so the order of 1st and 2nd is largely narrative.
Figures & provenance
Latest LA Mayor standings (Bass 34.3% / 275,992, Raman 28.5% / 229,576, Pratt 25.8% / 207,757 at about 92.7% counted) anchor to the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk semi-official results. Governor anchors to the California Secretary of State official returns (dp.electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/governor; live JSON at api.sos.ca.gov/returns/governor), reconciled to the June 9 update (Becerra 27.7% / 2,179,684, Hilton 25.1% / 1,977,968, Steyer 22.3%, Bianco 10.3%, all precincts partially reporting). Press Refresh to attempt a live pull of that official feed. The per-update increments, intermediate snapshots, and the keyword-tracker volumes are an illustrative reconstruction reconciled to those published endpoints and to the early-count image (Governor, June 3 10:00 AM: Hilton 27.8%, Becerra 25.4%, Steyer 19.6%, 57.5% in, about 3.687M ballots estimated outstanding). They illustrate the shape of the count; verify every number against the primary links below before citing.
The June 7 “fraud” post
A widely-shared post (@EndWokeness, ID 2063618266510098485) framed the pre- vs post-Election-Day mail mix shift as fraud. A shift in the partisan composition of remaining ballots is the expected, well-documented signature of late mail in California, not evidence of manipulation. The 2022 LA Mayor race is direct precedent: Bass trailed on election night and pulled ahead as mail was counted. Ballots are signature-verified, the canvass is observable, and running totals are reconciled batch by batch. We track the claim because tracking it, with context, is the job; we do not endorse it.
Built as an open research tool by David T Phung.